1 Game Profile

1.1 Estimated Outcomes on BGG

This table displays the selected game’s current values on four BGG outcomes (UsersRated, Average, GeekRating, Weight) along with my predictive model(s) estimated values for where these games are likely to end up.

Published	ID	Name	Type	UserRatings	Average	GeekRating	Weight
2021	310192	Overboss: A Boss Monster Adventure	Current	1,124	7.56	6.24	2.00
			Estimated	500	7.03	5.83	1.75

To see more information about the game on boardgamegeek, click on the game’s ID or Name to go straight to the game’s profile page.

1.2 Game Description

Description
In Overboss, rival Boss Monsters emerge from their dungeons to conquer the Overworld. Each turn, players draft and place terrain tiles and monster tokens. Their goal: to craft the map with the greatest Power and become the ultimate Overboss! Designed by Aaron Mesburne and Kevin Russ (Calico), this fast-paced game combines drafting, set collection, and puzzly tile laying. It's set in the retro-inspired pixel art world of Brotherwise Games' best-selling Boss Monster, but this is an entirely new experience. Build your map by drafting Forests, Swamps, Caves, Camps, Graveyards, Dungeon Entrances and other landscapes. Each terrain type has a different point value, and some increase in Power as you acquire larger sets. Players must balance optimal placement, set values, and disrupt their opponents' sets. You'll also need to manage monsters, which award points when grouped together or placed on matching terrain. The game includes everything needed for up to 5 players: over 120 terrain tiles, over 100 monster tokens, 5 double-sided player boards, a scorepad, and more. —description from the publisher (updated for added content)

1.3 Game Information

Information on the game’s designers, artists, families, mechanics and categories from BGG.

For the full profile of the selected game, click on the links in the table or go to https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/310192

1.4 Explaining Predictions

For each of the predictions above, I used models that were trained on historical boardgamegeek data in order to predict the selected game. How did the model(s) arrive at their predictions? The following plot displays Shapley values to indicate what features were most influential for the model’s predictions. Anything in blue increased the model’s predictions, anything in red decreased the model’s predictions.

2 Finding Similar Games

What games are similar to Overboss: A Boss Monster Adventure? I compare the selected game to every other game on boardgamegeek based on its mechanics, playing time, complexity, and game type. The tables below display the games which had the most similar data to Overboss: A Boss Monster Adventure. The reported similarity is the cosine similarity between the selected game and all other games published before 2021.

This similarity score ranges from -1 to 1, where similarity of 1 indicates that games are exactly identical (a game will have a score of 1 with itself).

Note: This analysis does not look at a game’s ratings on BGG, publisher, artist, or designer - it focuses on finding similar games based on how they play, not how they are rated or by their theme.

2.1 Most Similar Games

The table below displays games with the most similar data to Overboss: A Boss Monster Adventure. Click on a game’s ID or Name to go straight to its profile on boardgamegeek.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2021	310192	Overboss: A Boss Monster Adventure	1.00	6.24	7.56	1.75	1,124
1	2014	153623	Limes	0.92	6.06	6.85	1.90	1,226
2	2019	286656	Mooncake Master	0.92	5.55	6.55	1.00	92
3	2008	38657	Cities	0.91	5.88	6.42	1.66	1,196
4	2017	219513	Bärenpark	0.90	7.13	7.35	1.64	14,655
5	2019	287954	Azul: Summer Pavilion	0.90	7.41	7.75	2.04	11,029
6	2020	283155	Calico	0.90	7.34	7.72	2.20	10,473
7	2019	285533	Miyabi	0.89	6.28	7.52	2.06	1,125
8	2014	155426	Castles of Mad King Ludwig	0.89	7.37	7.54	2.66	23,531
9	2018	256226	Azul: Stained Glass of Sintra	0.89	7.07	7.37	2.01	10,815
10	2012	120801	Nizam	0.89	5.52	6.18	1.75	53
11	2018	252929	Planet	0.88	6.35	6.73	1.60	4,248
12	2014	145012	Sultaniya	0.88	5.81	6.52	2.00	792
13	2020	307844	Atheneum: Mystic Library	0.88	5.87	7.25	1.70	481
14	2016	204027	Cottage Garden	0.88	6.61	6.88	1.90	7,718
15	2017	216428	Seikatsu	0.88	6.21	7.13	1.60	1,433
16	2019	269752	Noctiluca	0.87	6.24	7.16	1.36	1,455
17	2017	230802	Azul	0.87	7.68	7.79	1.77	67,056
18	2020	318328	Picnic	0.87	5.62	7.18	1.33	149
19	2009	40393	FITS	0.87	6.19	6.58	1.39	3,162
20	2011	91523	Mondo	0.87	6.06	6.49	1.81	2,513
21	1983	128	Take it Easy!	0.86	6.18	6.61	1.48	2,906
22	2003	16986	Ubongo	0.86	6.46	6.70	1.52	8,467
23	2020	260180	Project L	0.86	6.85	7.59	1.54	3,429
24	1991	1038	Tantrix	0.86	5.92	6.33	2.22	1,995
25	2018	243994	Swordcrafters	0.86	5.66	6.56	1.40	346

Click on the ID or Name for any game to go its profile page on boardgamegeek.

2.2 Most Similar, Highly Rated Games

What games are similar to Overboss: A Boss Monster Adventure while also being highly rated by the boardgamegeek community? In this table I multiply every neighboring game’s similarity score by its GeekRating. The resulting score is an attempt to balance these two quantities.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Score	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2021	310192	Overboss: A Boss Monster Adventure	6.24	1.00	6.24	7.56	1.75	1,124
1	2017	230802	Azul	6.67	0.87	7.68	7.79	1.77	67,056
2	2019	287954	Azul: Summer Pavilion	6.67	0.90	7.41	7.75	2.04	11,029
3	2020	283155	Calico	6.59	0.90	7.34	7.72	2.20	10,473
4	2014	155426	Castles of Mad King Ludwig	6.58	0.89	7.37	7.54	2.66	23,531
5	2017	219513	Bärenpark	6.43	0.90	7.13	7.35	1.64	14,655
6	2018	256226	Azul: Stained Glass of Sintra	6.28	0.89	7.07	7.37	2.01	10,815
7	2020	260180	Project L	5.91	0.86	6.85	7.59	1.54	3,429
8	2017	199561	Sagrada	5.90	0.80	7.36	7.51	1.93	31,978
9	2019	281259	The Isle of Cats	5.85	0.78	7.52	7.87	2.31	13,443
10	2016	204027	Cottage Garden	5.82	0.88	6.61	6.88	1.90	7,718
11	2020	304420	Bonfire	5.72	0.81	7.08	7.80	3.64	4,121
12	2019	285533	Miyabi	5.61	0.89	6.28	7.52	2.06	1,125
13	2018	252929	Planet	5.60	0.88	6.35	6.73	1.60	4,248
14	2003	16986	Ubongo	5.59	0.86	6.46	6.70	1.52	8,467
15	2014	153623	Limes	5.58	0.92	6.06	6.85	1.90	1,226
16	2019	269752	Noctiluca	5.43	0.87	6.24	7.16	1.36	1,455
17	2017	216428	Seikatsu	5.43	0.88	6.21	7.13	1.60	1,433
18	2015	160851	Lanterns: The Harvest Festival	5.39	0.81	6.66	6.90	1.56	10,402
19	2009	40393	FITS	5.37	0.87	6.19	6.58	1.39	3,162
20	1983	128	Take it Easy!	5.34	0.86	6.18	6.61	1.48	2,906
21	2008	38657	Cities	5.33	0.91	5.88	6.42	1.66	1,196
22	2017	217449	NMBR 9	5.32	0.81	6.58	6.89	1.21	6,518
23	2019	276042	Conspiracy: Abyss Universe	5.29	0.82	6.46	7.35	1.81	1,974
24	2011	91523	Mondo	5.25	0.87	6.06	6.49	1.81	2,513
25	2018	258444	Gingerbread House	5.24	0.83	6.33	7.02	1.80	2,121

2.3 Why Are Games Considered Similar?

I first ran a dimension reduction method (PCA) to identify the main points of variation for games on BGG. The first 25 components explained roughly 50% of the overall variation in the dataset, so I computed the cosine similarity between every game’s score on these 25 components.

2.3.1 Plotting All Games

The following plot shows every game on BGG plotted on the first two principal components of variation. I then highlight where the selected game and its nearest neighbors fall on these first two components.

2.3.2 Game Profiles

Similarity scores are based on 25 principal components - the next table displays the selected game and its neighbors profiles on each of these components.

2.3.3 Examining Components

What are these components? The following plot shows which features contribute the most to each component.

Published	ID	Name	Publisher(s)	Designer(s)	Artist(s)	Categories	Families	Mechanics
2021	310192	Overboss: A Boss Monster Adventure	Brotherwise Games	Aaron Mesburne	Darren Calvert	Fantasy	Components: Game Trayz Inside	Open Drafting
				Kevin Russ		Puzzle	Crowdfunding: Kickstarter	Pattern Building
						Video Game Theme	Game: Boss Monster	Pieces as Map
								Set Collection
								Solo / Solitaire Game
								Tile Placement

Individual Game Analysis